Denver Metro 6 County Inventory Count

Market Fun Facts (06/14/24): The heat is on and Summer is here!  What will we see in the summer real estate market?  To answer this question NeXstep continues to monitor inventory levels across the 6 County Denver Metro. For the the fifth month in a row we see another increase in inventory levels; active listings are up by +1,841 listing for a total of 9,543 active homes for sale.  This is the highest inventory count we have recorded since taking notes in 2020.  Prior to this month, the highest number of homes on the market occurred October of 2022 when we had 7,702 properties for sale. Sold homes had their fourth month of increased sales with 111 additional sales month over month for a total of 4,022 sold units.  However, the increase in home sales has not kept up with the pace of active homes.  Therefore, absorption rates have increased by about two weeks, 1.93 to 2.29 months.  Is this an indication that buyers are starting to have more choices and negotiating leverage?  Jefferson county continues to remain the lowest absorption rate at 1.93 months and Denver county has the highest rate at 2.81 months. Denver County leads with the most active listings at 2,752 and Broomfield County continues to have the fewest listings at 226.  Current publications indicate a balanced real estate market would need a minimum of 18,000 listings.  Thinking about selling…let’s talk!

What do these numbers mean? To help understand what these numbers mean to our local markets we are now including the number of sold comps during the past 30 days or 1 month.  Looking at our sold numbers over the past month allows us to calculate a monthly absorption rate.  An absorption rate tells us how many months it would take to sell off our entire inventory should we have no new listings.  A balanced market is considered 6 months.

County Sold Active Absorption Rate
Adams 682 1596 2.34
Arapahoe 810 1881 2.32
Broomfield 120 226 1.88
Denver 981 2752 2.81
Douglas 639 1563 2.45
Jefferson 790 1,525 1.93
Total 4,022 9,543 2.29

June 2024 Market Summary

As we navigate the real estate market for the week of June 5th-12th, 2024, it is clear that the market continues to retract. Increased inventory and hesitant buyers have led to significant shifts in market dynamics.

Key Points:

  • Retraction persists as more inventory enters the market, and pending transactions decline, leading to a higher months’ supply of inventory than usual for the second week of June.
  • The growing inventory and shrinking buyer pool have caused prices to fall slightly as we transition into summer.
  • Our average daily active listings have increased week over week, with inventory significantly higher compared to the same period last year.
  • New listings have shown an upward trend, and this activity is expected to continue growing until September. However, pending transactions have declined compared to the previous weekend.
  • The Odds of Selling have decreased compared to last week, trending historically below the average for June in previous years.
  • To balance the market with a 6-month supply of inventory, we would need a significantly higher number of total listings, indicating we are currently far from market equilibrium.
  • Showings last week were down slightly, with the average number of showings per property and the number of showings required to go under contract showing some fluctuations.
  • Price reductions were more prevalent this week, with a notable portion of units going under contract after reducing their price. The size of these reductions has remained consistent.
  • If you have clients considering when to list their property this summer, it is advisable to list as soon as possible. Growing inventory and a diminishing buyer pool could lead to longer days on market and potential price reductions. Listing earlier in the summer may help achieve the best possible price for their home.

I hope this analysis helps you better advise your buyers and sellers in our ever-shifting market. Should you need further assistance, please do not hesitate to reach out. If I can help you in any way, I would greatly appreciate your recommendation of First American Title to your clients.

Special thanks to Megan Aller with First American Title for the market stats/narrative.