Denver Metro 6 County Inventory Count

Market Fun Facts (7/01/22): Welcome to July – summer is here and like the temperature inventory is on the rise.  How will the market look with the summer heat? To answer this question NeXstep continues to monitor inventory levels across the 6 County Denver Metro. This month marks the 5th straight month of inventory increase as we are up (+1,323) active properties from last month for a total of 6,075 active homes for sale.  This marks the largest inventory count of 2022 and the largest inventory count since the spring of 2020, a two year high.  In July of 2021 we had 3,207 active homes on the market.  However sales are down -616 properties from last month for a total of 5,101 sold homes in the past 30 days.  Another sign of change is found in our absorption rates.  Our average absorption rate is up to 1.30 months, just over one month.  For the first time this year we have all but one county over one month of supply.  Broomfield at 1.74 months leads all six counties while Arapahoe is the only county under 1 month at 0.97 months. For the first time this year all but one county have over 1,000+ active listings.  Denver County leads with the way with 1,355 active listings and Broomfield County continues to have the fewest listings with only 197.  Current publications indicate a balanced real estate market would need a minimum of 18,000 listings.  Thinking about selling…let’s talk!

What do these numbers mean? To help understand what these numbers mean to our local markets we are now including the number of sold comps during the past 30 days or 1 month.  Looking at our sold numbers over the past month allows us to calculate a monthly absorption rate.  An absorption rate tells us how many months it would take to sell off our entire inventory should we have no new listings.  A balanced market is considered 6 months.  Despite lower sales in August we still see all 6 counties are under 1 month.

County Sold Active Absorption Rate
Adams 817 1057 1.29
Arapahoe 1134 1097 0.97
Broomfield 113 197 1.74
Denver 1279 1355 1.06
Douglas 776 1270 1.64
Jefferson 982 1099 1.12
Total 5,101 6,075 1.30

Talking Points For June 2022

Special thanks to Megan Aller at First American Title for the following Market Summary:

Cooling trend continues, even after holiday weekend.

Inventory went way up this week, with kids out of school and summer upon us listing count increased. Our average daily active count is now just shy of 4,000 units available for sale which is nearly 4x the amount of homes we had for sale back in January and February of 2022. Now is a great time to circle back to those buyers who fatigued this winter and circle them back into a much less competitive market. Pending transactions are not rising with the increase in inventory which had bumped up our months supply of inventory to 0.7, which is still in multiple offer territory but is a far cry from the 0.2 months of inventory we experienced over Super Bowl Weekend.

With The Odds of Selling I am projecting out the likelihood of a property going under contract in a 30 day period during that week of activity. The odds of selling has dropped below where we were over the last 3 day holiday weekend, being Memorial Day, even as we head into a new 3 day holiday weekend being Juneteeth. I expect showings and pending units to decline this weekend by approximately 30% based on data from other 3 day holiday weekends. Hold off on listing this weekend and making price reductions as buyer activity will slow. Pick back up again next week, and sellers, get your listings to market as soon as you can this cooling trend doesn’t show signs of slowing down through the summer. I don’t expect a pop of activity between now and the end of the year so the time is now!

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