Denver Metro 6 County Inventory Count

Market Fun Facts (04/12/24): Spring is here!  As we move into the spring months what will the real estate market look like?  To answer this question NeXstep continues to monitor inventory levels across the 6 County Denver Metro. For the the third month in a row we see another increase in inventory levels; active listings are up by +1490 listing for a total of 6,970 active homes for sale.  Sold homes had their second month of increased sales with 711 additional sales month over month for a total of 3,897 sold units.  Absorption rates remain largely unchanged, 1.74 to 1.76 months.  Interestingly, last year it took until July before we saw this level of inventory.  Is this an indication that buyers are coming back to the market despite higher interest rates?  Jefferson county continues to remain the lowest absorption rate at 1.33 months and Denver county has the highest rate at 2.26 months. Denver County leads with the most active listings at 2,027 and Broomfield County continues to have the fewest listings at 166.  Current publications indicate a balanced real estate market would need a minimum of 18,000 listings.  Thinking about selling…let’s talk!

What do these numbers mean? To help understand what these numbers mean to our local markets we are now including the number of sold comps during the past 30 days or 1 month.  Looking at our sold numbers over the past month allows us to calculate a monthly absorption rate.  An absorption rate tells us how many months it would take to sell off our entire inventory should we have no new listings.  A balanced market is considered 6 months.

March 2024 Market Summary

As we transition from winter into spring, it’s essential to keep abreast of the current dynamics of the Metro Denver real estate market. Our recent observations indicate an uptick in activity post-President’s Day, expected to surge into mid-May 2024.

For detached single-family homes, while active inventory saw a slight increase in February, the market remains tight compared to historical averages. Notably, buyer engagement has shown positive signs, with a notable rise in pending transactions. Despite a significant increase in closed transactions last month, we’re still experiencing a faster market compared to the low points of early 2024. Prices continue to trend upward, albeit with a less frenzied multiple offer environment than during the pandemic peak. Speed of sales and over-asking price transactions indicate a competitive market, yet with more balanced conditions compared to previous years.

In the realm of attached single-family homes, inventory has modestly grown, alongside a jump in new listings. Demand remains healthy as evidenced by rising pending and closed transactions, though slightly down year-over-year. Pricing trends are mixed, showing both rises and dips, reflecting a nuanced market landscape. The pace of sales and over-asking price sales suggest that while competition has eased, desirable units still command premium prices.

Weekly data further underscores the market’s momentum, with notable increases in contracts and new listings, hinting at a spring resurgence. The balance between supply and demand is shifting, highlighted by the uptick in the Odds of Selling rate. Yet, despite this positive movement, the market still leans towards buyers when considering the ideal inventory balance.

As we approach the more vibrant selling season, keep in mind the timing nuances this March, especially with the upcoming Spring Breaks and Easter holidays which historically affect showings and market activity.

We encourage you to use this information to guide your clients effectively in this evolving market landscape. Staying informed and adaptable will be key to navigating the upcoming months successfully.

Special thanks to Megan Aller with First American Title for the market stats/narrative.