Denver Metro 6 County Inventory Count

Market Fun Facts (12/05/24): The Holidays are officially underway!  What affect will this have on our real estate market as we enter into the final month of 2024?  To answer this question NeXstep continues to monitor inventory levels across the 6 County Denver Metro. For the the second time in the past two months we see a decrease in inventory levels; active listings are down by -1718 listing for a total of 8375 active homes for sale.  This is the first time in 3 months that we have dropped below the 10K inventory levels.  Sold homes had a decrease in sales; down by -477 sales for a total of 2984 sold units.  The decrease in home sales and the decrease in active homes for sale has lowered our monthly absorption rate from 2.77 months to 2.75 months.  Jefferson county now has the lowest absorption rate at 1.97 months and Denver county has the highest rate at 3.4 months. Denver County leads with the most active listings at 2,372 and Broomfield County continues to have the fewest listings at 182.  Current publications indicate a balanced real estate market would need a minimum of 18,000 listings.  Thinking about selling…let’s talk!

What do these numbers mean? To help understand what these numbers mean to our local markets we are now including the number of sold comps during the past 30 days or 1 month.  Looking at our sold numbers over the past month allows us to calculate a monthly absorption rate.  An absorption rate tells us how many months it would take to sell off our entire inventory should we have no new listings.  A balanced market is considered 6 months.

Seasonal Slow Down Taking Place

Seasonal Slowdown: Buyer activity has noticeably decreased as the holidays approach, with fewer new listings entering the market. Many stale listings are being withdrawn and will likely return in the spring. Year-over-year comparisons may appear skewed due to differences in the timing of Thanksgiving this year versus last.

Adapting to the Market: The current market continues to reflect a new normal, with no immediate return to the low interest rates or home prices of prior years. Practicing “radical acceptance” is key—acknowledging current conditions without resistance or judgment, and focusing on strategies that align with today’s realities.

Inventory Trends: Active inventory declined slightly compared to last week but remains significantly higher than this time last year. New listings have dipped slightly compared to the prior weekend but are well above last year’s levels. Pending transactions are also trending down week over week.

Odds of Selling: Sellers’ odds of successfully closing a transaction improved slightly last week but remain lower than historical averages during this cycle.

Showings and Time on Market: Showings experienced a small week-over-week decrease but are much higher than one year ago. Properties are taking longer to go under contract, giving buyers more time to make thoughtful decisions.

Pricing and Reductions: Price reductions continue to be a factor, with a majority of units under contract reflecting some adjustment. However, the average size of reductions has decreased, signaling a tempered approach from sellers.

As we approach Thanksgiving weekend and the start of the holiday season, expect fewer new listings, more withdrawn inventory, lower contract activity, and longer market times. These trends are typical for this time of year and underscore the importance of helping clients navigate the market with realistic expectations.

Wishing you and your loved ones a safe and joyful Thanksgiving. I look forward to seeing you soon at First American’s closing tables

Special thanks to Megan Aller with First American Title for the market stats/narrative.