Denver Metro 6 County Inventory Count

Market Fun Facts (12/05/24): The Holidays are officially underway!  What affect will this have on our real estate market as we enter into the final month of 2024?  To answer this question NeXstep continues to monitor inventory levels across the 6 County Denver Metro. For the the second time in the past two months we see a decrease in inventory levels; active listings are down by -1718 listing for a total of 8375 active homes for sale.  This is the first time in 3 months that we have dropped below the 10K inventory levels.  Sold homes had a decrease in sales; down by -477 sales for a total of 2984 sold units.  The decrease in home sales and the decrease in active homes for sale has lowered our monthly absorption rate from 2.77 months to 2.75 months.  Jefferson county now has the lowest absorption rate at 1.97 months and Denver county has the highest rate at 3.4 months. Denver County leads with the most active listings at 2,372 and Broomfield County continues to have the fewest listings at 182.  Current publications indicate a balanced real estate market would need a minimum of 18,000 listings.  Thinking about selling…let’s talk!

What do these numbers mean? To help understand what these numbers mean to our local markets we are now including the number of sold comps during the past 30 days or 1 month.  Looking at our sold numbers over the past month allows us to calculate a monthly absorption rate.  An absorption rate tells us how many months it would take to sell off our entire inventory should we have no new listings.  A balanced market is considered 6 months.

2024 Year End Narrative

As we closed out 2024, the final week of the year brought the usual mix of seasonal quiet and significant market milestones. The trifecta of holidays—Christmas, Hanukkah, and Kwanzaa—followed by New Year celebrations, historically represents the least active period in the market. Sellers, after seeing limited showing activity and preparing for the festivities, often pulled listings from the market or held off listing altogether in hopes of better conditions in the New Year.

Residential resale inventory in the 7 metro Denver counties has dropped from its peak of 10,617 homes for sale on October 16, 2024 to 6,723 as of December 31, 2024 marking a decline of 37%.

What makes December 31st at midnight remarkable is not just that we get to put 2024 behind us and we all start back at zero, but also this day historically represents the single highest day of the year for listings to expire. This year was no exception and on the final day of 2024, 829 units expired.

2024 Saw a notably higher level of expired listings on the last day of the year, nearly double the amount recorded in 2022 and in 2023. The rise in expired listings this year likely due to the elevated amount of inventory we have reported since April of 2024, with more inventory and the buyer pool continuing to be lower for the third year in a row it’s not shocking that we had more listings expire.

Diving deeper into expired listings, looking back at the number of expired listings in Q4 of 2023 in the 7 metro counties there were 2,874 units that were pulled off the market. Out of curiosity, I wanted to see how many of those expired listings were relisted in hopes better market conditions to sell in Q1 of 2024 and surprisingly only 274, or slightly less than 10%, of the previous quarter’s expired listings were relisted. I’ll be digging deeper into expired data over the next few weeks.

Key Highlights of the Week

Inventory Levels
Inventory continued its seasonal decline, with fewer active listings week over week. However, year-over-year inventory remains significantly higher compared to the same week in 2023. While fewer homes were added to the market, the elevated overall supply combined with slower buyer activity underscores a challenging environment for sellers.

Market Dynamics
New listings and “coming soon” properties declined sharply, both week over week and year over year. Pending transactions also saw a notable drop, contributing to an increase in the predictive month’s supply of inventory. This growth highlights the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand, a trend that has persisted throughout 2024.

Odds of Selling in the Next 30 Days
The Odds of Selling dipped to one of their lowest levels of the year, reflecting the seasonal slowdown. Historically, December’s Odds of Selling have hovered around 49.2% in previous market cycles, but current levels remain well below those benchmarks.

Showing Activity
Showings also declined, both on a weekly and yearly basis, with an average of just under one showing per property. For homes that went under contract, it took a median of 19 showings over 60 days, a timeline significantly longer than in previous years.

Price Reductions
The rate of price reductions continued to rise slightly, with more than half of the homes going under contract having undergone at least one price adjustment. The average size of these reductions grew, signaling that sellers are increasingly willing to negotiate to meet buyer expectations.

Looking Ahead to 2025

As we reflect on the final week of 2024, we are reminded of the opportunities that come with a new year. Thank you for making 2024 a year of growth and learning in the metro Denver real estate market. We remain committed to providing the data and insights you need to keep your clients informed and successful in their transactions.

Special thanks to Megan Aller with First American Title for the market stats/narrative.